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Playing suited cards in HE October 24, 2004

You will be dealt two suited cards in Holdem 24% of the time (312 / 1,326 = .2353). That's almost 1 out of 4 hands. However, in my experience, these hands are both overrated and overplayed preflop. You will flop a flush .8% of the time and you will flop a flush draw 11% of the time.

A flush draw on the flop is a hand that you want to have when the pot is multi-way and/or bigger than normal (there have been several raises preflop). In those cases, you are getting very good value for your flush draw, so if you hit the flush 35% of the time you are in very good shape since you will usually win with it. However, there is nothing enviable about a flush draw on the flop when you are heads up against a "made" hand and the pot is of average size. Think about it! You must hit the flush in order to win; you can't bluff your opponent. If you do hit it, you will probably -but not certainly- get paid off. But how much will you win? not much! Is it correct to fold after the flop? not quite! but do you really want to play it out? not quite!

I consider this like a hard hand against a ten in blackjack. You are forced to hit and you will sometimes make a hand and win but most of the time you will bust and in rare cases you will make a good hand and still lose to a 20 or 21. If the casino offers you the option to take back your bet, would you? I would! I'd rather wait for a better hand like when I have two picture cards for a count of 20 and the dealer is showing a picture. Now, the dealer must get lucky to have another picture underneath and push or get real lucky and make a 20 or 21 with small cards. Similarly, on a flop of K72 I'd rather have the pair of kings and I'll let my opponent have the flush draw. Remember this fundamental rule that applies almost universally in Holdem: the made hand is ALWAYS favored over the draw!

Therefore our advice is plain and simple: if your two holdem cards are not worthy of playing for their own merit, don't play them just for the flush. Your best flop is three suited cards and that comes so rarely that it's just not worth it. Furthermore, if your flush is small, even a made flush on the flop is vulnerable to a bigger flush draw and in rare cases someone will have flopped a bigger flush and you will be drawing dead while pumping in raise after raise into a pot that you can't win! What's the solution? Play big flush draws. Try to play flush draws that have at least one face card. Now you can win by pairing the face card and your flush is also bigger and stronger when you do hit it.

But even a hand like K6 suited violates our rule that you shouldnt play any flush draw for the value of the flush alone. Would you consider playing K6o? of course not! and therefore you should usually not be playing K6s. I know that most players play these kind of hands for a limp but I consider it incorrect as a matter of principle. The only time I consider it correct play is on the button and when there have been many limpers ahead of you. Now you are getting in cheaply in a situation where you are getting good value for your far-fetched draw. Also, if you do hit the flush or the flush draw and an EP player bets out, you will then be able to raise in late position and make all the players ahead of you put in an extra bet and this plays very much to your advantage since you might get a free river if you miss the turn. If you miss the flop -like you usually will- you fold without any fanfare or hesitation; so it only cost you one small bet for a chance to win a big pot.

Now I must emphasize what I mentioned in the previous paragraph that you should usually muck a hand like Q6s, J5s, K3s "as a matter of principle". There are exceptions to the rule. In addition to the "late position play for one bet" I mentioned earlier, you can also play from MP or even in EP in a loose passive game. If you expect many players to limp behind you with all sorts of hands (some of which are probably weaker than yours) then it is correct to play this hand from any position. But this kind of game is quite rare in higher limits and if you are a good player you probably will be playing in a higher limit where most players are fairly strong. Your profit will be driven mostly by one or two loose or wild players. In such games, raises are extremely common and most pots are played heads up or three-way. In this siutation position is very important and so is the expected return for your draw if you hit it. If you can't meet these conditions, you should usually muck a hi-lo flush draw from early to mid position. If you do decide to play it from early-mid position in such a game, consider raising with it. If you can get heads-up against the blinds, then you have a good chance of winning outright or on the flop, unimproved.

Which hand is better? 65s or K6s? This is a tough question and there can be arguments to both sides. I know that many experts believe that a 65s is better because you won't get stuck with bad kicker; you either hit the flop or you're gone. However, in my analysis, it depends on the situation.

In a loose, passive game where everybody limps in to see the flop, I'd rather have a K6s because my flush will be bigger and in this kind of game a small flush is dangerous. Also, if I make a pair of kings I might win unimproved (not very likely but possible nonetheless) even with my bad kicker as long as noone else has a king (or if there's a pair on board). In a tight aggressive game, you can much more easilly stumble into a bigger king even in a small pot, and you will usually have to pay it off. Thirdly, in a loose aggressive game one of your best flops for the K6s is trips sixes on the flop and if that does happen you will often be up against smaller trips who are drawing pretty slim against you and you stand to win quite a bit if your opponent is aggressive.

The 65s is a better hand, though, in an aggressive game where you are not up against that many players. In this game, you can cold-call a raise in LP and see the flop. There are quite a few ways you can hit the flop and since you figure your opponents to be holding high cards or pocket pairs, they will often stay in longer than they should, with little chance to beat you. You don't want a K6 in such a game because the king is a dead card. You can easilly be up against AK or KQ or even pocket kings. You don't want to see a king!

What's an ideal flop for a 65s?

* a rainbow nut straight is the perfect flop, in the following order of preference: 234, 347, 478.

* a two-suited nut straight. You are ahead right now but you are vulnerable to flushes on later rounds.

* a full house, preferrably with two suited cards so as to keep the flush draws in.

* trips. Whether you want to see big cards accompanying your trips depends. If you think you are up against big pocket pairs then you don't.

* the flush on the flop. You are vulnerable to bigger made flushes and to bigger flush draws.

* a non-nut straight composed of 789 or the like. In most cases, you will have the best hand right now, but there's always a possibility that someone is holding a JT or even T6. You are also vulnerable to bigger straight draws. If a six, ten or jack falls on a later round you will often lose and if a five falls you will often have to split the pot.

* two pair on a rainbow flop, preferrably top two. You are most likely ahead on the flop but with two cards to come, you will often get conterfeit or beat by bigger two pair on a later round.

* pair with straight draw or pair with flush draw. You are possibly ahead right now, especially on a flop of 467 or the like and if you aren't you still have an excellent draw.

* top pair. This is hard to materialize since you cards are so small but it will happen sometimes and when it does you will have some sort of straight draw to go with it. If your opponent does have a better kicker or an overpair in the hole you are still drawing live to the straight, two pair and/or trips.

* flush draw. A flush draw is better than a straight draw because it will beat straights and you have 9 outs instead of 8.

* straight draw on a rainbow flop, preferrably to the big end. You don't want to hit your perfect card only to find out that your opponent has just made a bigger straight or a flush.

Note that if you think you are up against a pocket pair, you'd rather hit a draw than a pair which might get you involved in a hand when you have fewer outs and you will then end up calling the river as well just in case your opponent is bluffing.

If you hit just a pair and there are several threatening paint cards on board or if you hit a gutshot straight draw or a straight draw when there's a flush-draw on board, you must be extremely cautious. With most of these hands you don't want to get involved too much if at all. Don't cold-call a raise on the flop and if it doesn't feel right, drop it right then and there even for one bet. You don't always have to "peel" and see one more card.

A flush draw on the flop when you are holding unsuited cards

Sometimes, the flop will be three suited cards and you will be holding one of the suit for a flush draw. This is far from a perfect flop even if you have the nut draw. Granted: if you have the nut flush draw, you are forced to stay in all the way. But how much do you stand to win if you hit it? From my expereience, you are not going to win much. I very rarely get raised or even bet into when there is a four flush on board and I hold the ace. Players tend to be fearful of the ace or a bigger flush and they often won't even bet a queen or king high flush. So basically your chances of hitting the flush remain only 35% but you are not going to make much once you hit it. Anyone who doesn't have a flush will most likely fold. For this reason, this kind of flush draw loses much of its desirability and you should therefore note my following advice:

You certainly don't want to be in there drawing to the flush when there's a bigger draw around. So if the pot is unraised preflop and you see many players cold-calling the flop, don't stay in with anything less than the second-nut draw unless you've got something else besides the flush draw. Someone's got to have a bigger draw and if nobody does, you still haven't lost much by giving up your 35% theoretical draw which is actually less than that if many players are drawing to it indicating that several cards of the needed suit are already out.

If the pot was raised and reraised preflop, that's a different story. Now, people will stay in with many more hands and since your opponents are not very likely to be holding flush draws at all, your hand goes up in value quite a bit over a very similar hand held in an unraised pot. This is an extremely important concept that I have learned from experience. Your hand is more valuable for two reasons:

* players are now staying in with all kinds of hands including pairs, straight draws, trips and -yes!- even gutshot straight draws. Nobody wants to give up their hand, because the pot is so big. You could very well be the only player with a flush card even in a 4-5 way pot.

* since the pot is so big, your 35% draw is much more valuable and you will also get paid off more when you hit it.

Therefore, if you are are playing a four way pot and you have somehow called a capped bet preflop with JTo and now the flop comes Axx of the suit of the jack, consider this a flush draw. Call all raises on the flop unless you have a specific reason to believe that someone is holding the king or queen of that suit. You don't assume that there's a bigger flush draw out there just because everyone is staying in. To illustrate this concept, see the statistic below:

As you can see, without any knowledge about your opponent's hole cards, in our example there's a 76% (3 opponents, 2 overcards to the jack) chance that there are no diamond overcards out there. What does the post-flop action tell you? Well, this is where it gets complicated and you have to be a good "reader" to find out. I've seen cases like this where it's capped preflop and then capped again on a flop of AKx suited and then when another suit falls a small flush will take down the whole pot against a set of aces and a set of kings. If you are able to read your opponent/s for a set or two pair then by definition they do not have any of the suit on board. But even if you read your opponent/s for just a pair of aces (matching the ace on board), you already know that one of their cards is unsuited.

My point is that 76% is more than enough to justify this flush draw given all the money that's in there already. In addition, since you are "reading" your opponents for pairs and/or sets, this makes the flush cards slightly more live and increases your chance of hitting the flush. Of course, if there's a bigger diamond out there, then you're drawing dead pretty much. But don't we all draw dead sometimes and still call all the way, like when we are up against a set? There are situations in poker where you just have to stay in and call your opponent down and hope for the best.

A second-nut flush draw on the flop when you are holding unsuited cards

In general, second-nut should still be assumed to be the best draw out there, even if you're up against many players. However, this is not a must-play; discretion is important here. Specifically, in an unraised pot (preflop) don't cold-call a raise on the flop if you have nothing else going besides the flush draw.

A nut flush draw on the flop when you are holding unsuited cards

A nut flush draw on the flop should usually be played to the river. However, as mentioned earlier, you won't get much action when you hit it, so this hand is not that valuable. If many players are in, that's an incentive to play but it also means that the flush cards might not be very live, assuming that some of those players have a flush draw as well or even a made flush on the flop. Still, stay in all the way as long as the board is not paired and there is no excessive raising. If the situation gets out of control on the turn with a raise and reraise before action gets to you, get out! In fact, you should usually fold for even one raise on the turn as long as the pot isn't excessively big.