Poker Strategy

Every poker player cherishes a strong urge to play. This urge is a manifestation of a very basic and fundamental human urge to be active and productive in society. We simply don't want to sit idly. We always want to do something.

In poker, however, satisfying this urge will destroy you. Just as a little kid has to be taught to not always seek to satisfy their quest for immediate self-gratification, a poker player must get accustomed to overcoming the urge to play.

Without getting into some complicated calculations, let's make some pretty simple common-sense calculations:

If you are playing Holdem in a ten-handed table, you will win one in ten hands on average if everyone plays to the river (blind). If only three players choose to play to the river (including you) you will win 33.3% of the time IF all hands have an equal mathematical chance of winning preflop; you will thus break even in the long run. In reality, almost every player is selective about their starting hand, requiring you to be selective as well. In order for you to have a winning expectation, you must be more selective (on average) than the players you are up against.

You simply can't expect to be a winning holdem player if you consistently call with a 98o even if there has been no raise. The fact that you can get in cheaply doesn't compensate for the fact that you are putting in your money with the worst hand KNOWING damn well that you have the least chance of winning preflop.

Therefore, as a general rule, if you want to be a winning player it all starts with starting-hand selection. The rule, in most cases, is extremely straightforward: If you don't think that you are starting with a hand that is at least as good as your opponents' average hand, don't play.

For example: A good, aggressive player raises UTG in HE and two good players call the raise. You have 98o and are debating whether to call or not. You are "putting" the original raiser on two big cards i.e. AJ, you think caller 1 has two big cards as well i.e. KQ, caller 2 has a pocket pair i.e. 77. Notice that your hand is not in bad shape at all here. No single player has a huge edge over you and you are not dominated by anyone. You might think that this hand is "flop-dependent". If I hit I'll stay, if I don't I'm out. Wrong!! The odds of winning preflop are broken down as follows: AJo 30.5% KQo 30.5% 98o 17.5% 77 21.6%. As you can see, you have the worst hand. Calling in this spot is fundamentally wrong (although it's not a huge mistake) even if there was no raise. However, the raise helps you "define" what the other players have (big cards or pocket pair) and it also makes it more expensive to try to catch a flop.

You might now ask what about the implied odds for when I do hit the flop? Answer: Unless you know you are up against players who get attached to their big cards and don't let go of them until the end, there is no implied odds. There are other scenario's where implied odds are also possible (such as if you think your opponents are easily bluffable or outplayable) but you generally have to be significantly better than your opponent in order to justify playing your 98 against their AJ. The usual rule of thumb is simple. If you don't have a hand that is -at a minimum- roughly as good as your opponent's, don't play!!

Experienced poker players KNOW the value of a starting poker hand. An AK in HE is always a strong hand preflop. An AJ in HE is always a good hand preflop. A QT in HE is always a marginal hand preflop. These things do not change no matter how long you have waited to catch these cards. The fact that you have gotten 83o 73o and T4o hundred times in a row, does not change the marginality of the QT and it doesn't make the AJ a monster. Always maintain the proper perspective and have the discipline to keep folding trash hands for what seems an eternity if you think you don't have a playable hand in that particular situation.